Leyton Orient 1–3 Bradford CityMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Tuesday, 08 September 2026

1–3

Bradford City win

Bradford City

> 🧠 Model verdict

✓ Model called it

Pre-match, Bawler had Leyton Orient at 35%, draw at 29%, Bradford City at 37%. The match ended 1-3 — confirming the model's lean toward Bradford City.

> Pre-match probability vs result

Orient win

35%

Draw

29%

City win

37%

Actual ✓

> Expected vs actual goals

Model expected (xG)

1.22 – 1.26

Total 2.47

Actual

1 – 3

Total 4 (+1.5 vs xG)

Match overperformed xG by 1.5 goals. Above-expectation scoring — could be finishing, set-piece luck, or genuine attacking quality the model under-rated.

> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed

High confidence

Over 1.5 Goals

Pre-match: 71%

✓ Won

Outside shot

Over 3.5 Goals

Pre-match: 24%

✓ Won

> What we said pre-match

"Over 1.5 Goals projects at 71% because combined expected goals of 2.47 and a narrow xG gap (0.05) signal both sides will create genuine chances in an evenly matched contest."

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