FT · EUROPE: Europa League - Qualification · Thursday, 20 August 2026
Lech Poznan 7–0 FC ThunMatch recap & how our call landed · Thursday, 20 August 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Lech Poznan to win at 63%. Bawler had Lech Poznan at 63%, the draw at 21% and FC Thun at 17%. The match finished 7–0.
Pre-match probability vs result
Lech Poznan win
63%
Result
Draw
21%
FC Thun win
17%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
2.2 – 1.1
Total 3.3
Actual
7 – 0
Total 7 (+3.7 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
2.8 – 0.6
From the match itself
The match produced 3.7 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 84%
Landed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 21%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.