FT · FRANCE: Ligue 1 · Saturday, 22 August 2026
Le Mans 2–2 BrestMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 22 August 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Brest or draw at 66%. Bawler had Le Mans at 34%, the draw at 27% and Brest at 39%. The match finished 2–2.
Pre-match probability vs result
Le Mans win
34%
Draw
27%
Result
Brest win
39%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.3 – 1.4
Total 2.7
Actual
2 – 2
Total 4 (+1.3 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
0.7 – 2.4
From the match itself
The match produced 1.3 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 76%
Landed
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 goals
Pre-match: 52%
Landed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 27%
Landed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.