FT · Europe: Conference League - Qualification · Thursday, 27 August 2026
Larne 0–3 Lincoln Red ImpsMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Thursday, 27 August 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had Larne at 36%, draw at 28%, Lincoln Red Imps at 36%. Against expectation, the match finished 0-3. The model's headline call was Larne to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Larne win
36%
Draw
28%
Imps win
36%
Actual ✓
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.30 – 1.30
Total 2.60
Actual
0 – 3
Total 3 (+0.4 vs xG)
Total goals landed close to the model's expectation — within 0.4 of forecast. Suggests this match played to the underlying xG balance.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 73%
✓ Won
Medium confidence
Under 2.5 Goals
Pre-match: 52%
✗ Lost
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 28%
✗ Lost
> What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals lands at 73% confidence because both sides project identical expected goals of 1.30, setting up a perfectly balanced attacking fixture that historically produces multi-goal outcomes."