FT · EUROPE: Champions League - Qualification · Tuesday, 11 August 2026
Kauno Zalgiris 1–2 Dinamo ZagrebMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Tuesday, 11 August 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had Kauno Zalgiris at 40%, draw at 28%, Dinamo Zagreb at 32%. Against expectation, the match finished 1-2. The model's headline call was Kauno Zalgiris to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Zalgiris win
40%
Draw
28%
Zagreb win
32%
Actual ✓
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Kauno Zalgiris or Draw
Pre-match: 68%
✗ Lost
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 Goals
Pre-match: 52%
✓ Won
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 28%
✗ Lost