FT · Europe: Europa League - Qualification · Thursday, 27 August 2026
Kauno Zalgiris 1–0 BesiktasMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Thursday, 27 August 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had Kauno Zalgiris at 14%, draw at 20%, Besiktas at 66%. Against expectation, the match finished 1-0. The model's headline call was Besiktas to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Zalgiris win
14%
Actual ✓
Draw
20%
Besiktas win
66%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
0.91 – 2.19
Total 3.10
Actual
1 – 0
Total 1 (-2.1 vs xG)
Match underperformed xG by 2.1 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Away Win
Pre-match: 66%
✗ Lost
Outside shot
Over 3.5 Goals
Pre-match: 38%
✗ Lost
> What we said pre-match
"Besiktas away win is the high-confidence call, backed by a commanding 1.29 xG advantage and 66% win probability against a Zalgiris side that projects just 0.91 expected goals."