FT · EUROPE: Europa League - Qualification · Thursday, 20 August 2026
Kairat Almaty 0–3 AnderlechtMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Thursday, 20 August 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had Kairat Almaty at 28%, draw at 26%, Anderlecht at 47%. The match ended 0-3 — confirming the model's lean toward Anderlecht.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Almaty win
28%
Draw
26%
Anderlecht win
47%
Actual ✓
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.23 – 1.65
Total 2.87
Actual
0 – 3
Total 3 (+0.1 vs xG)
Total goals landed close to the model's expectation — within 0.1 of forecast. Suggests this match played to the underlying xG balance.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 78%
✓ Won
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 Goals
Pre-match: 55%
✓ Won
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 26%
✗ Lost