What we expect
Model inputs
Common questions
Who will win Japan vs Venezuela?
Bawler's model rates this match: Japan are favoured (78% win probability vs 7% for Venezuela, 15% draw). The model uses rolling xG, recent form, and lineup data.
What is the predicted score for Japan vs Venezuela?
The most likely scoreline from Bawler's model is Japan 2-0 Venezuela (13.7% probability). Expected total goals: 3.14.
How does Bawler predict Japan vs Venezuela?
Bawler builds each side's expected goals from a rolling 26-match window, adjusts for home advantage and for injuries or absences in the confirmed squads, then runs the resulting scoreline distribution to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. For this match that gives Japan 78%, the draw 15% and Venezuela 7%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in Japan vs Venezuela?
BTTS: No (58% probability) — at least one team likely fails to score. Based on home expected goals 2.52 and away expected goals 0.62.
Over or under 2.5 goals in Japan vs Venezuela?
Bawler's model gives a combined expected-goals total of 3.14. The lean is Over 2.5 (a goal-fest is on the cards).