FT · England: Premier League · Sunday, 11 October 2026
Hull City 2–2 EvertonMatch recap & how our call landed · Sunday, 11 October 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Everton or draw at 79%. Bawler had Hull City at 21%, the draw at 24% and Everton at 55%. The match finished 2–2.
Pre-match probability vs result
Hull City win
21%
Draw
24%
Result
Everton win
55%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.1 – 1.8
Total 2.9
Actual
2 – 2
Total 4 (+1.1 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.3 – 1.7
From the match itself
The match produced 1.1 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Everton or draw
Pre-match: 79%
Landed
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 goals
Pre-match: 55%
Landed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 33%
Landed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.