FT · Netherlands: KNVB Beker · Thursday, 29 October 2026

HSV Hoek 4–2 Sparta NijkerkMatch recap & how our call landed · Thursday, 29 October 2026

HSV Hoek
4–2
HSV Hoek win
Sparta Nijkerk

Our call before kickoff

Our call landed

Before kickoff our call was HSV Hoek or draw at 70%. Bawler had HSV Hoek at 43%, the draw at 26% and Sparta Nijkerk at 30%. The match finished 4–2.

Pre-match probability vs result

HSV Hoek win
43%
Result
Draw
26%
Sparta Nijkerk win
30%

Goals we expected vs goals scored

Our forecast
1.6 – 1.3
Total 2.9
Actual
4 – 2
Total 6 (+3.1 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
4.3 – 1.0
From the match itself

The match produced 3.1 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.

Every graded pick · and how it landed

Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 78%
Landed
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 goals
Pre-match: 55%
Landed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 26%
Missed

Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.

What we said pre-match

"Over 1.5 Goals projects at 75% because HSV Hoek's 1.48 xG combined with Sparta Nijkerk's 1.19 xG creates enough attacking threat across both sides."

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