BAWLER
FT · EUROPE: Champions League - Qualification · Wednesday, 19 August 2026

Hapoel Be'er 21 Sabah FKMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Wednesday, 19 August 2026

Hapoel Be'er
21
Hapoel Be'er win
Sabah FK
> 🧠 Model verdict
✓ Model called it

Pre-match, Bawler had Hapoel Be'er at 42%, draw at 27%, Sabah FK at 31%. The match ended 2-1 — confirming the model's lean toward Hapoel Be'er.

> Pre-match probability vs result
Be'er win
42%
Actual ✓
Draw
27%
FK win
31%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.521.29
Total 2.81
Actual
21
Total 3 (+0.2 vs xG)

Total goals landed close to the model's expectation — within 0.2 of forecast. Suggests this match played to the underlying xG balance.

> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 77%
✓ Won
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 Goals
Pre-match: 53%
✓ Won
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 27%
✗ Lost

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