FT · EUROPE: Conference League - Qualification · Thursday, 20 August 2026
Hajduk Split 2–2 Raków CzestochowaMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Thursday, 20 August 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had Hajduk Split at 46%, draw at 25%, Raków Czestochowa at 28%. Against expectation, the match finished 2-2. The model's headline call was Hajduk Split to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Split win
46%
Draw
25%
Actual ✓
Czestochowa win
28%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.67 – 1.26
Total 2.93
Actual
2 – 2
Total 4 (+1.1 vs xG)
Match overperformed xG by 1.1 goals. Above-expectation scoring — could be finishing, set-piece luck, or genuine attacking quality the model under-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 79%
✓ Won
Medium confidence
1X
Pre-match: 72%
✓ Won
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 25%
✓ Won