FT · EUROPE: Conference League - Qualification · Thursday, 20 August 2026
Hajduk Split 2–2 Raków CzestochowaMatch recap & how our call landed · Thursday, 20 August 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Hajduk Split or draw at 72%. Bawler had Hajduk Split at 46%, the draw at 25% and Raków Czestochowa at 28%. The match finished 2–2.
Pre-match probability vs result
Hajduk Split win
46%
Draw
25%
Result
Raków Czestochowa win
28%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.7 – 1.3
Total 2.9
Actual
2 – 2
Total 4 (+1.1 against our forecast)
The match produced 1.1 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 79%
Landed
Medium confidence
Hajduk Split or draw
Pre-match: 72%
Landed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 25%
Landed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.