FT · Netherlands: KNVB Beker · Thursday, 29 October 2026

GVVV 3–0 NoordwijkMatch recap & how our call landed · Thursday, 29 October 2026

GVVV
3–0
GVVV win
Noordwijk

Our call before kickoff

Our call landed

Before kickoff our call was GVVV or draw at 70%. Bawler had GVVV at 43%, the draw at 26% and Noordwijk at 30%. The match finished 3–0.

Pre-match probability vs result

GVVV win
43%
Result
Draw
26%
Noordwijk win
30%

Goals we expected vs goals scored

Our forecast
1.6 – 1.3
Total 2.9
Actual
3 – 0
Total 3 (+0.1 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
2.9 – 0.5
From the match itself

The match produced about as many goals as we forecast — within 0.1 of our 2.9.

Every graded pick · and how it landed

Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 78%
Landed
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 goals
Pre-match: 55%
Landed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 26%
Missed

Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.

What we said pre-match

"Over 1.5 Goals is the high-confidence call at 75%, as GVVV's 1.48 xG combined with Noordwijk's 1.19 projects a low-scoring but efficient attacking display."

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