FT · Turkey: Süper Lig · Monday, 07 September 2026
Goztepe 2–4 Gaziantep FKMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Monday, 07 September 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had Goztepe at 57%, draw at 23%, Gaziantep FK at 20%. Against expectation, the match finished 2-4. The model's headline call was Goztepe to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Goztepe win
57%
Draw
23%
FK win
20%
Actual ✓
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.93 – 1.07
Total 3.00
Actual
2 – 4
Total 6 (+3.0 vs xG)
Match overperformed xG by 3.0 goals. Above-expectation scoring — could be finishing, set-piece luck, or genuine attacking quality the model under-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 80%
✓ Won
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 23%
✗ Lost
> What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals commands 80% confidence because Goztepe's 1.93 expected goals nearly doubles Gaziantep FK's 1.07, suggesting a match built for multiple goals."