What we expect
In plain English
Germany should win this one. The model expects them to create about a goal more per game than Serbia. Expect goals: the model sees around four.
What would change the call
Germany to win, priced again from the same expected goals if the match reaches these states.
Each row is the call re-priced for that scoreline at half-time. Lineups are not in it — we publish per-player shooting rates, not a squad-strength number, so what a rested front three does to this figure is not something we can honestly put a number on.
Model inputs
Head to head
Common questions
Who will win Germany vs Serbia?
Bawler's model rates this match: Germany are favoured (93% win probability vs 2% for Serbia, 6% draw). The model uses rolling xG, recent form, and lineup data.
What is the predicted score for Germany vs Serbia?
The most likely scoreline from Bawler's model is Germany 3-0 Serbia (13.9% probability). Expected total goals: 4.07.
How does Bawler predict Germany vs Serbia?
Bawler builds each side's expected goals from a rolling 26-match window, adjusts for home advantage and for injuries or absences in the confirmed squads, then runs the resulting scoreline distribution to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. For this match that gives Germany 93%, the draw 6% and Serbia 2%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in Germany vs Serbia?
BTTS: No (67% probability) — at least one team likely fails to score. Based on home expected goals 3.66 and away expected goals 0.41.
Over or under 2.5 goals in Germany vs Serbia?
Bawler's model gives a combined expected-goals total of 4.07. The lean is Over 2.5 (a goal-fest is on the cards).