FT · Turkey: Süper Lig · Saturday, 29 August 2026
Gaziantep FK 1–2 Caykur RizesporMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 29 August 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call missed
Before kickoff our call was Gaziantep FK or draw at 65%. Bawler had Gaziantep FK at 39%, the draw at 26% and Caykur Rizespor at 35%. The match finished 1–2.
Pre-match probability vs result
Gaziantep FK win
39%
Draw
26%
Caykur Rizespor win
35%
Result
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.5 – 1.4
Total 3.0
Actual
1 – 2
Total 3 (+0.0 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
0.8 – 0.9
From the match itself
The match produced about as many goals as we forecast — within 0.0 of our 3.0.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 80%
Landed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 26%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals projects at 80% because both sides average comparable shot quality—Gaziantep's 1.52 xG and Rizespor's 1.44 xG combine for a low-scoring but open fixture."