FT · ENGLAND: EFL Cup · Tuesday, 25 August 2026

Fleetwood Town 40 Shrewsbury TownMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Tuesday, 25 August 2026

Fleetwood Town
40
Fleetwood Town win
Shrewsbury Town
> 🧠 Model verdict
✓ Model called it

Pre-match, Bawler had Fleetwood Town at 43%, draw at 26%, Shrewsbury Town at 31%. The match ended 4-0 — confirming the model's lean toward Fleetwood Town.

> Pre-match probability vs result
Town win
43%
Actual ✓
Draw
26%
Town win
31%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.551.27
Total 2.82
Actual
40
Total 4 (+1.2 vs xG)

Match overperformed xG by 1.2 goals. Above-expectation scoring — could be finishing, set-piece luck, or genuine attacking quality the model under-rated.

> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 77%
✓ Won
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 Goals
Pre-match: 53%
✓ Won
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 26%
✗ Lost

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