FT · EUROPE: Conference League - Qualification · Thursday, 20 August 2026
FC Twente 0–1 FK QarabagMatch recap & how our call landed · Thursday, 20 August 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call missed
Before kickoff our call was FC Twente to win at 64%. Bawler had FC Twente at 64%, the draw at 21% and FK Qarabag at 15%. The match finished 0–1.
Pre-match probability vs result
FC Twente win
64%
Draw
21%
FK Qarabag win
15%
Result
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
2.2 – 1.0
Total 3.1
Actual
0 – 1
Total 1 (−2.1 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.1 – 0.5
From the match itself
The match produced 2.1 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
FC Twente or draw
Pre-match: 85%
Missed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 21%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.