FT · EUROPE: Conference League - Qualification · Thursday, 20 August 2026
FC Twente 0–1 FK QarabagMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Thursday, 20 August 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had FC Twente at 64%, draw at 21%, FK Qarabag at 15%. Against expectation, the match finished 0-1. The model's headline call was FC Twente to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Twente win
64%
Draw
21%
Qarabag win
15%
Actual ✓
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
2.16 – 0.98
Total 3.14
Actual
0 – 1
Total 1 (-2.1 vs xG)
Match underperformed xG by 2.1 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
1X
Pre-match: 85%
✗ Lost
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 21%
✗ Lost