How it finished
FK Qarabag beat FC Twente 1–0. Bawler's model favoured FC Twente at 64% before kickoff and got it wrong — it gave FK Qarabag 15%. It forecast 3.1 goals; only 1 was scored. FC Twente had 21 shots (5 on target) to FK Qarabag's 7 (4), with 61% of the ball against 39%. On expected goals it was 1.1 to 0.5, so FC Twente created the better chances and still lost the game.
Published before kickoff and settled afterwards — misses included. Every call is time-stamped to the Bitcoin blockchain before the match so it cannot be edited later.
What we expected
What we expected before kickoff.
Each row is drawn on one scale, so a bar means the same length on both sides. Shots and corners are not shown for this fixture — we do not have enough counted matches for these sides yet.
Our numbers, most likely first
What we published for this match, strongest first — our three strongest above the line.
No first-half forecast for this fixture.
Model inputs
Common questions
Who won FC Twente vs FK Qarabag?
FK Qarabag beat FC Twente 1–0. Bawler's model favoured FC Twente at 64% before kickoff and got it wrong — it gave FK Qarabag 15%. It forecast 3.1 goals; only 1 was scored. FC Twente had 21 shots (5 on target) to FK Qarabag's 7 (4), with 61% of the ball against 39%. On expected goals it was 1.1 to 0.5, so FC Twente created the better chances and still lost the game.
What was the final score in FC Twente vs FK Qarabag?
FC Twente 0–1 FK Qarabag, played on 20 Aug 2026 in the EUROPE: Conference League - Qualification. Bawler's model had gone into it with FC Twente 64%, the draw 21% and FK Qarabag 15%.
What were the stats in FC Twente vs FK Qarabag?
Full-time: Possession 61%–39%, Expected goals (xG) 1.1–0.5, Shots 21–7, Shots on target 5–4, Shots inside box 12–6, Big chances 2–1, Corners 5–3, Saves 3–5, Fouls 13–4, Offsides 1–1, Yellow cards 5–1.
Did both teams score in FC Twente vs FK Qarabag?
No. It finished 0–1, so FC Twente failed to score. Bawler's model had put both teams scoring at 55% before kickoff.
Was Bawler's prediction for FC Twente vs FK Qarabag right?
Every call is published before kickoff and graded afterwards, misses included. On this match: Our call — we said FC Twente to win 64%, it finished FK Qarabag won (15% called); Total goals — we said 3.1, it finished 1; Both teams to score — we said 55%, it finished No; Graded pick — we said FC Twente or draw 85%, it finished Missed.