FT · Europe: Europa League - Qualification · Thursday, 27 August 2026
FC Thun 2–2 Lech PoznanMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Thursday, 27 August 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had FC Thun at 29%, draw at 24%, Lech Poznan at 47%. Against expectation, the match finished 2-2. The model's headline call was Lech Poznan to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Thun win
29%
Draw
24%
Actual ✓
Poznan win
47%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.42 – 1.86
Total 3.28
Actual
2 – 2
Total 4 (+0.7 vs xG)
Match overperformed xG by 0.7 goals. Above-expectation scoring — could be finishing, set-piece luck, or genuine attacking quality the model under-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 84%
✓ Won
Medium confidence
X2
Pre-match: 71%
✓ Won
Outside shot
Under 2.5 Goals
Pre-match: 36%
✗ Lost
> What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals is the model's high-confidence call at 84%, anchored by Lech Poznan's 0.44 xG advantage and a combined expected-goal total of 3.28 that favors an open, multi-goal contest."