Match prediction·EUROPE: Conference League - Qualification·Thursday 13 Aug, 17:00 UTC

FC Nordsjælland vs Valur Reykjavik

Bawler weighs each team's recent scoring and defending, then adjusts for home advantage and injuries to work out how this match is likely to go. This page shows the full chain — every number we used.

📊 Win probability
40.0% home28.0% draw32.0% away
📈 xG chain — base → adjustments → final goal estimate
FC NordsjællandstepValur Reykjavik
1.40Base xG · rolling 26-match1.10
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.40Final goal estimate — what the model uses1.10
🎯 Scoreline distribution · chance of each scoremodel estimate
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
8
9
5
2
1
1
11
13
7
3
1
2
8
9
5
2
3
4
4
2
1
4
1
1
1
5
6
home windrawaway win
Most likely outcomes
Under 3.5 goals
81%
FC Nordsjælland or Draw
68%
FC Nordsjælland Win
40%
Draw
28%

Model probabilities for this fixture, ordered by likelihood. Estimates from rolling expected goals — not guarantees.

More predictions for these teams

FC Nordsjælland fixtures & form →Valur Reykjavik fixtures & form →

Nordsjælland vs Valur Reykjavik — Head-to-Head

In 1 recorded meeting since 6 August 2026, Nordsjælland have won 1, Valur Reykjavik have won 0, with 0 drawn. This covers only matches in Bawler's own settled ledger — not an all-time head-to-head record.

DateResultCompetition
6 August 2026Valur Reykjavik 0–2 NordsjællandEUROPE: Conference League - Qualification

The model's verdict for this fixture: Nordsjælland 40% · draw 28% · Valur Reykjavik 32%.

Model probabilities are edge estimates for entertainment — not betting advice, and past performance does not guarantee future results. 18+.

Nordsjælland predictions & form →Valur Reykjavik predictions & form →BTTS predictions →Over 2.5 goals predictions →Full track record →
More match predictions ▶
Betting picks & odds for this match (18+) →

Model estimates from rolling expected goals — not guaranteed outcomes. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results.