FT · EUROPE: Conference League - Qualification · Thursday, 20 August 2026
FC Midtjylland 2–0 RijekaMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Thursday, 20 August 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had FC Midtjylland at 65%, draw at 22%, Rijeka at 14%. The match ended 2-0 — confirming the model's lean toward FC Midtjylland.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Midtjylland win
65%
Actual ✓
Draw
22%
Rijeka win
14%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
2.02 – 0.82
Total 2.84
Actual
2 – 0
Total 2 (-0.8 vs xG)
Match underperformed xG by 0.8 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
1X
Pre-match: 86%
✓ Won
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 Goals
Pre-match: 54%
✗ Lost
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 22%
✗ Lost