Match prediction·EUROPE: Conference League - Qualification·Thursday 13 Aug, 16:00 UTC

FC Ilves vs Rijeka

Bawler weighs each team's recent scoring and defending, then adjusts for home advantage and injuries to work out how this match is likely to go. This page shows the full chain — every number we used.

📊 Win probability
40.0% home28.0% draw32.0% away
📈 xG chain — base → adjustments → final goal estimate
FC IlvesstepRijeka
1.40Base xG · rolling 26-match1.10
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.40Final goal estimate — what the model uses1.10

Ilves average 3.0 corners per game this season (3 competitive matches). Rijeka average 3.0 corners per game away from home this season (5 competitive matches).

🎯 Scoreline distribution · chance of each scoremodel estimate
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
8
9
5
2
1
1
11
13
7
3
1
2
8
9
5
2
3
4
4
2
1
4
1
1
1
5
6
home windrawaway win
Most likely outcomes
FC Ilves or Draw
68%
Over 2.5 goals
52%
FC Ilves Win
40%
Draw
28%

Model probabilities for this fixture, ordered by likelihood. Estimates from rolling expected goals — not guarantees.

More predictions for these teams

FC Ilves fixtures & form →Rijeka fixtures & form →

Ilves vs Rijeka — Head-to-Head

In 1 recorded meeting since 6 August 2026, Ilves have won 0, Rijeka have won 1, with 0 drawn. This covers only matches in Bawler's own settled ledger — not an all-time head-to-head record.

DateResultCompetition
6 August 2026Rijeka 1–0 IlvesEUROPE: Conference League - Qualification

The model's verdict for this fixture: Ilves 40% · draw 28% · Rijeka 32%.

Model probabilities are edge estimates for entertainment — not betting advice, and past performance does not guarantee future results. 18+.

Ilves predictions & form →Rijeka predictions & form →BTTS predictions →Over 2.5 goals predictions →Full track record →
More match predictions ▶
Betting picks & odds for this match (18+) →

Model estimates from rolling expected goals — not guaranteed outcomes. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results.