FT · Turkey: Süper Lig · Saturday, 24 October 2026
Eyupspor 0–1 KasimpasaMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 24 October 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Kasimpasa or draw at 66%. Bawler had Eyupspor at 34%, the draw at 29% and Kasimpasa at 37%. The match finished 0–1.
Pre-match probability vs result
Eyupspor win
34%
Draw
29%
Kasimpasa win
37%
Result
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.2 – 1.3
Total 2.5
Actual
0 – 1
Total 1 (−1.5 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
0.4 – 0.6
From the match itself
The match produced 1.5 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 71%
Missed
Medium confidence
Both teams to score
Pre-match: 50%
Missed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 24%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals projects at 71% probability as both sides generate near-identical attacking threat—Eyupspor 1.21 xG, Kasimpasa 1.27—creating conditions for an open contest."