FT · Turkey: Süper Lig · Saturday, 05 September 2026
Erzurum BB 1–0 KonyasporMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Saturday, 05 September 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had Erzurum BB at 45%, draw at 26%, Konyaspor at 29%. The match ended 1-0 — confirming the model's lean toward Erzurum BB.
> Pre-match probability vs result
BB win
45%
Actual ✓
Draw
26%
Konyaspor win
29%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.65 – 1.30
Total 2.94
Actual
1 – 0
Total 1 (-1.9 vs xG)
Match underperformed xG by 1.9 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 79%
✗ Lost
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 26%
✗ Lost
> What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals is the high-confidence forecast at 79%, backed by Erzurum BB's 0.35 xG advantage and a combined expected-goals total of 2.94 that tilts toward an open contest."