FT · TURKEY: Super Lig · Friday, 21 August 2026
Erzurum BB 0–4 GalatasarayMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Friday, 21 August 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had Erzurum BB at 23%, draw at 24%, Galatasaray at 54%. The match ended 0-4 — confirming the model's lean toward Galatasaray.
> Pre-match probability vs result
BB win
23%
Draw
24%
Galatasaray win
54%
Actual ✓
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.17 – 1.89
Total 3.05
Actual
0 – 4
Total 4 (+0.9 vs xG)
Match overperformed xG by 0.9 goals. Above-expectation scoring — could be finishing, set-piece luck, or genuine attacking quality the model under-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 81%
✓ Won
Medium confidence
Away Win
Pre-match: 54%
✓ Won
Outside shot
Over 3.5 Goals
Pre-match: 36%
✓ Won