FT · EUROPE: Europa League - Qualification · Thursday, 20 August 2026
Egnatia 0–0 LillestromMatch recap & how our call landed · Thursday, 20 August 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Egnatia or draw at 68%. Bawler had Egnatia at 43%, the draw at 25% and Lillestrom at 32%. The match finished 0–0.
Pre-match probability vs result
Egnatia win
43%
Draw
25%
Result
Lillestrom win
32%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.7 – 1.4
Total 3.1
Actual
0 – 0
Total 0 (−3.1 against our forecast)
The match produced 3.1 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 81%
Missed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 25%
Landed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.