FT · Scotland: Scottish Prem · Saturday, 05 September 2026
Dundee United 1–1 FalkirkMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Saturday, 05 September 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had Dundee United at 38%, draw at 26%, Falkirk at 35%. Against expectation, the match finished 1-1. The model's headline call was Dundee United to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
United win
38%
Draw
26%
Actual ✓
Falkirk win
35%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.48 – 1.40
Total 2.88
Actual
1 – 1
Total 2 (-0.9 vs xG)
Match underperformed xG by 0.9 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 78%
✓ Won
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 Goals
Pre-match: 55%
✗ Lost
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 26%
✓ Won
> What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals projects at 78% because both sides generate near-identical attacking threat—Dundee United's 1.48 xG and Falkirk's 1.40 xG combine for a 2.88-goal expectancy that favors a multi-goal contest."