FT · EUROPE: Conference League - Qualification · Thursday, 20 August 2026

Drita Gjilan 22 Inter D'EscaldesMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Thursday, 20 August 2026

> 🧠 Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean

Pre-match, Bawler had Drita Gjilan at 77%, draw at 14%, Inter D'Escaldes at 9%. Against expectation, the match finished 2-2. The model's headline call was Drita Gjilan to win.

> Pre-match probability vs result
Gjilan win
77%
Draw
14%
Actual ✓
D'Escaldes win
9%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
2.991.02
Total 4.02
Actual
22
Total 4 (-0.0 vs xG)

Total goals landed close to the model's expectation — within 0.0 of forecast. Suggests this match played to the underlying xG balance.

> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 91%
✓ Won
Outside shot
Under 2.5 Goals
Pre-match: 24%
✗ Lost

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