FT · Netherlands: KNVB Beker · Thursday, 29 October 2026

De Treffers 1–0 Heracles AlmeloMatch recap & how our call landed · Thursday, 29 October 2026

De Treffers
1–0
De Treffers win
Heracles Almelo

Our call before kickoff

Our call landed

Before kickoff our call was De Treffers or draw at 64%. Bawler had De Treffers at 38%, the draw at 26% and Heracles Almelo at 36%. The match finished 1–0.

Pre-match probability vs result

De Treffers win
38%
Result
Draw
26%
Heracles Almelo win
36%

Goals we expected vs goals scored

Our forecast
1.5 – 1.5
Total 3.0
Actual
1 – 0
Total 1 (−2.0 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.9 – 1.3
From the match itself

The match produced 2.0 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.

Every graded pick · and how it landed

Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 79%
Missed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 26%
Missed

Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.

What we said pre-match

"Over 1.5 Goals projects at 77% because De Treffers and Heracles Almelo are nearly matched in shot quality (1.43 vs 1.40 xG), generating enough attacking threat to breach that low threshold."

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