FT · EUROPE: Europa League - Qualification · Thursday, 20 August 2026

CSU Craiova 11 Ararat-ArmeniaMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Thursday, 20 August 2026

> 🧠 Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean

Pre-match, Bawler had CSU Craiova at 60%, draw at 23%, Ararat-Armenia at 17%. Against expectation, the match finished 1-1. The model's headline call was CSU Craiova to win.

> Pre-match probability vs result
Craiova win
60%
Draw
23%
Actual ✓
Ararat-Armenia win
17%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.890.90
Total 2.78
Actual
11
Total 2 (-0.8 vs xG)

Match underperformed xG by 0.8 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.

> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
1X
Pre-match: 83%
✓ Won
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 Goals
Pre-match: 53%
✗ Lost
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 23%
✓ Won

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