Pre-match, Bawler had CSU Craiova at 60%, draw at 23%, Ararat-Armenia at 17%. Against expectation, the match finished 1-1. The model's headline call was CSU Craiova to win.
Match underperformed xG by 0.8 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.