FT · EUROPE: Europa League - Qualification · Thursday, 20 August 2026
CSU Craiova 1–1 Ararat-ArmeniaMatch recap & how our call landed · Thursday, 20 August 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call missed
Before kickoff our call was CSU Craiova to win at 60%. Bawler had CSU Craiova at 60%, the draw at 23% and Ararat-Armenia at 17%. The match finished 1–1.
Pre-match probability vs result
CSU Craiova win
60%
Draw
23%
Result
Ararat-Armenia win
17%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.9 – 0.9
Total 2.8
Actual
1 – 1
Total 2 (−0.8 against our forecast)
The match produced 0.8 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
CSU Craiova or draw
Pre-match: 83%
Landed
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 goals
Pre-match: 53%
Missed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 23%
Landed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.