CP Talayuela 1–2 Sporting de AlcázarMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 27 September 2026

1–2

Sporting de Alcázar win

Sporting de Alcázar

> 🧠 Model verdict

✗ Result against the lean

Pre-match, Bawler had CP Talayuela at 45%, draw at 26%, Sporting de Alcázar at 30%. Against expectation, the match finished 1-2. The model's headline call was CP Talayuela to win.

> Pre-match probability vs result

Talayuela win

45%

Draw

26%

Alcázar win

30%

Actual ✓

> Expected vs actual goals

Model expected (xG)

1.65 – 1.32

Total 2.97

Actual

1 – 2

Total 3 (+0.0 vs xG)

Total goals landed close to the model's expectation — within 0.0 of forecast. Suggests this match played to the underlying xG balance.

> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed

High confidence

Over 1.5 Goals

Pre-match: 80%

✓ Won

Outside shot

Draw

Pre-match: 26%

✗ Lost

> What we said pre-match

"Over 1.5 Goals stands at 80% confidence because combined expected goals of 2.97 and Talayuela's 0.33 xG edge suggest both sides will create genuine chances in open play."

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