FT · TURKEY: Super Lig · Saturday, 22 August 2026
Çorum FK 0–1 KasimpasaMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Saturday, 22 August 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had Çorum FK at 49%, draw at 28%, Kasimpasa at 23%. Against expectation, the match finished 0-1. The model's headline call was Çorum FK to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
FK win
49%
Draw
28%
Kasimpasa win
23%
Actual ✓
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.50 – 0.96
Total 2.47
Actual
0 – 1
Total 1 (-1.5 vs xG)
Match underperformed xG by 1.5 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
1X
Pre-match: 77%
✗ Lost
Outside shot
Over 3.5 Goals
Pre-match: 24%
✗ Lost