FT · World: International Friendly · Thursday, 01 October 2026

Cook Islands 3–2 TahitiMatch recap & how our call landed · Thursday, 01 October 2026

Cook Islands
3–2
Cook Islands win
Tahiti

Our call before kickoff

Our call missed

Before kickoff our call was Tahiti or draw at 71%. Bawler had Cook Islands at 29%, the draw at 26% and Tahiti at 45%. The match finished 3–2.

Pre-match probability vs result

Cook Islands win
29%
Result
Draw
26%
Tahiti win
45%

Goals we expected vs goals scored

Our forecast
1.3 – 1.6
Total 2.9
Actual
3 – 2
Total 5 (+2.1 against our forecast)

The match produced 2.1 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.

Every graded pick · and how it landed

Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 79%
Landed
Medium confidence
Tahiti or draw
Pre-match: 71%
Missed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 33%
Landed

Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.

What we said pre-match

"Over 1.5 Goals is the model's high-confidence call at 80%, backed by Tahiti's 0.35 xG advantage and a combined expected output of 3.01 goals."

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