Cook Islands are more likely than not to avoid defeat, but it is close. The model sees around three goals in it.
Cook Islands or draw, priced again from the same expected goals if the match reaches these states.
Each row is the call re-priced for that scoreline at half-time. Lineups are not in it — we publish per-player shooting rates, not a squad-strength number, so what a rested front three does to this figure is not something we can honestly put a number on.
Bawler's model rates this match: Cook Islands are favoured (47% win probability vs 27% for Tahiti, 27% draw). The model uses rolling xG, recent form, and lineup data.
The most likely scoreline from Bawler's model is Cook Islands 1-1 Tahiti (12.6% probability). Expected total goals: 2.72.
Bawler builds each side's expected goals from a rolling 26-match window, adjusts for home advantage and for injuries or absences in the confirmed squads, then runs the resulting scoreline distribution to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. For this match that gives Cook Islands 47%, the draw 27% and Tahiti 27%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
BTTS: Yes (54% probability) — both attacks should find the net. Based on home expected goals 1.58 and away expected goals 1.14.
Bawler's model gives a combined expected-goals total of 2.72. The lean is Over 2.5 (a goal-fest is on the cards).