FT · World: International Friendly · Sunday, 04 October 2026

Comoros 0–1 SenegalMatch recap & how our call landed · Sunday, 04 October 2026

Comoros
0–1
Senegal win
Senegal

Our call before kickoff

Our call landed

Before kickoff our call was Senegal to win at 83%. Bawler had Comoros at 5%, the draw at 13% and Senegal at 83%. The match finished 0–1.

Pre-match probability vs result

Comoros win
5%
Draw
13%
Senegal win
83%
Result

Goals we expected vs goals scored

Our forecast
0.5 – 2.7
Total 3.2
Actual
0 – 1
Total 1 (−2.2 against our forecast)

The match produced 2.2 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.

Every graded pick · and how it landed

Graded pick · high confidence
Senegal to win
Pre-match: 83%
Landed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 39%
Missed

Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.

What we said pre-match

"Senegal's away win is the model's call at 82%, backed by a decisive 2.10 xG advantage with Sadio Mané and Ismaïla Sarr driving 38% of their attacking threat."

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