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China vs Bahrain prediction — International friendlies · Tue 17 Nov · 12:00 UK

International friendlies · Tue 17 Nov · 12:00 UK
VersusBahrainBahrain
56China win25Draw19Bahrain win
The call
81%
China or draw
Likeliest score
1–1
12% — the single most likely result
Expected goals
1.8v0.9
2.7 in total
Both teams score
50%
Coin flip
3+ goals
51%
Leans likely

What we expect from each side

The grey number is their average over the last six.

ChinaChinaBahrainBahrain
1.8Goals0.9
usually 0.8usually 1.0
15.1Shots7.1
usually 14.0usually 8.2
6.0On target2.1
usually 4.5usually 2.2
7.0Corners3.0
usually 7.2usually 4.2
ChinaChinaBahrainBahrain
0.8Goals0.4
6.9Shots3.2
usually 6.2usually 3.3
2.7On target0.9
usually 2.0usually 1.2
3.3Corners1.4
usually 4.0usually 1.5
ChinaChinaBahrainBahrain
1.0Goals0.5
8.2Shots3.9
3.3On target1.2
3.7Corners1.6

More chances

China to score83%
2 or more goals75%
3 goals or fewer71%
Goal before half-time70%
Bahrain to score61%

China · last 6

Lv Tajikistan0–14 shots
Lv Palestine0–512 shots
Lv New Zealand0–39 shots
Wv Maldives3–025 shots
Dv Thailand0–023 shots
Wat Singapore2–111 shots

Bahrain · last 6

Lv Yemen2–59 shots
Lv UAE0–34 shots
Lv Qatar0–29 shots
Lat Georgia0–206/05
Wv Sudan3–112 shots
Lv Algeria1–54 shots

Head to head

Jun 2025China 1–0 Bahrain
Nov 2024Bahrain 0–1 China
Sept 2018Bahrain 0–0 China
Aug 2010China 1–1 Bahrain

First half — what we expect

China
54%
to score before half-time
Bahrain
34%
to score before half-time

First-half chances

How likely each side is to reach these totals before half-time.

ChinaChinaBahrainBahrain
63%6+ shots15%
38%8+ shots<10%
71%2+ shots on target24%
30%4+ shots on target<10%
79%2+ corners39%
40%4+ corners<10%

Second half — who scores?

At half-time we update each side’s chance of scoring in the second half from what the first half showed.

What would change the call

China or draw is 81% now. Here is what it would become at half-time:

China lead 1–0 at half-time97%
Bahrain lead 1–0 at half-time44%
Goalless at half-time82%

Based on the half-time score alone — team news is not included.

Build a combination on this match →
Every Bawler's pick is logged before kickoff · Bawler's pick record →

Around this fixture

Bahrain
Before this
14 NovHYemen06:00
All fixtures & results →China form →Bahrain form →

Common questions

Who will win China vs Bahrain?

Bawler's model rates this match: China are favoured (56% win probability vs 19% for Bahrain, 25% draw). The model uses each side’s expected goals, recent form and the strength of the opposition.

What is the predicted score for China vs Bahrain?

The most likely scoreline from Bawler's model is China 1-1 Bahrain (11.7% probability). Expected total goals: 2.7.

How does Bawler predict China vs Bahrain?

Bawler estimates each side's expected goals from its results and the quality of its chances, adjusted for the strength of the opposition and for home advantage, then works out the chance of every scoreline to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. Team news and lineups are not built into these numbers. For this match that gives China 56%, the draw 25% and Bahrain 19%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.

Will both teams score in China vs Bahrain?

Probably — Bawler's model gives both teams scoring a 50% chance. That is based on China expecting 1.77 goals and Bahrain 0.93.

Over or under 2.5 goals in China vs Bahrain?

Bawler's model expects 2.7 goals in total. It leans slightly towards three or more goals: over 2.5 goals is 51%.