Chile v Colombia prediction
Colombia are favourites on our numbers: 56% to win, against 20% for Chile and 25% for a draw. If you want one score, our predicted score is Chile 0–1 Colombia, the most likely Colombia win (11%). We expect 2.7 goals in total: 1.0 for Chile and 1.8 for Colombia. Both teams scoring is 51% and three or more goals is 52%.
On shots, our forecast is 10.4 for Chile and 15.0 for Colombia, with 3.5 and 5.6 on target, and corners at 3.8 to 4.7. So we expect Colombia to do more of the shooting.
Written from the numbers on this page. These are forecasts, not certainties.
What we expect from each side
The grey number is their average over the last six.
More chances
Chile · last 6
Colombia · last 6
First half — what we expect
First-half chances
How likely each side is to reach these totals before half-time.
Second half — who scores?
At half-time we update each side’s chance of scoring in the second half from what the first half showed.
What would change the call
Colombia or draw is 80% now. Here is what it would become at half-time:
Based on the half-time score alone — team news is not included.
Around this fixture
Common questions
Who will win Chile vs Colombia?
Bawler's model rates this match: Colombia are favoured (56% win probability vs 20% for Chile, 25% draw). The model uses each side’s expected goals, recent form and the strength of the opposition.
What is the predicted score for Chile vs Colombia?
Bawler's predicted score is Chile 0-1 Colombia: the most likely score if Colombia win, which is the likeliest result (56%). Our model puts that exact score at 11.3%. Expected total goals: 2.7.
How does Bawler predict Chile vs Colombia?
Bawler estimates each side's expected goals from its results and the quality of its chances, adjusted for the strength of the opposition and for home advantage, then works out the chance of every scoreline to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. Team news and lineups are not built into these numbers. For this match that gives Chile 20%, the draw 25% and Colombia 56%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in Chile vs Colombia?
Probably — Bawler's model gives both teams scoring a 51% chance. That is based on Chile expecting 0.97 goals and Colombia 1.77.
Over or under 2.5 goals in Chile vs Colombia?
Bawler's model expects 2.7 goals in total. It leans slightly towards three or more goals: over 2.5 goals is 52%.
When are the Chile v Colombia line-ups announced?
Clubs usually name their line-ups about an hour before kickoff.