Ceuta 6 de Junio are more likely than not to avoid defeat, but it is close. The model sees around three goals in it.
Ceuta 6 de Junio or draw, priced again from the same expected goals if the match reaches these states.
Each row is the call re-priced for that scoreline at half-time. Lineups are not in it — we publish per-player shooting rates, not a squad-strength number, so what a rested front three does to this figure is not something we can honestly put a number on.
Bawler's model rates this match: Ceuta 6 de Junio are favoured (45% win probability vs 30% for UB Lebrijana, 26% draw). The model uses rolling xG, recent form, and lineup data.
The most likely scoreline from Bawler's model is Ceuta 6 de Junio 1-1 UB Lebrijana (11.8% probability). Expected total goals: 2.97.
Bawler builds each side's expected goals from a rolling 26-match window, adjusts for home advantage and for injuries or absences in the confirmed squads, then runs the resulting scoreline distribution to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. For this match that gives Ceuta 6 de Junio 45%, the draw 26% and UB Lebrijana 30%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
BTTS: Yes (59% probability) — both attacks should find the net. Based on home expected goals 1.65 and away expected goals 1.32.
Bawler's model gives a combined expected-goals total of 2.97. The lean is Over 2.5 (a goal-fest is on the cards).