FT · Turkey: Süper Lig · Monday, 07 September 2026
Caykur Rizespor 0–1 AlanyasporMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Monday, 07 September 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had Caykur Rizespor at 50%, draw at 26%, Alanyaspor at 24%. Against expectation, the match finished 0-1. The model's headline call was Caykur Rizespor to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Rizespor win
50%
Draw
26%
Alanyaspor win
24%
Actual ✓
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.63 – 1.07
Total 2.70
Actual
0 – 1
Total 1 (-1.7 vs xG)
Match underperformed xG by 1.7 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
1X
Pre-match: 76%
✗ Lost
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 Goals
Pre-match: 51%
✗ Lost
Outside shot
Over 3.5 Goals
Pre-match: 29%
✗ Lost
> What we said pre-match
"Caykur Rizespor's 0.56 expected-goals advantage and 50% win probability underpin the 1X forecast, suggesting the hosts avoid defeat despite Alanyaspor's visiting threat."