Canada 0–3 MoroccoMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Saturday, 04 July 2026

Canada

0–3

Morocco win

Morocco

> Model verdict

✓ Model called it

Pre-match, Bawler had Canada at 32%, draw at 32%, Morocco at 36%. The match ended 0-3 — confirming the model's lean toward Morocco.

> Pre-match probability vs result

Canada win

32%

Draw

32%

Morocco win

36%

Actual ✓

> Expected vs actual goals

Model expected (xG)

1.28 – 1.35

Total 2.63

Actual

0 – 3

Total 3 (+0.4 vs xG)

Total goals landed close to the model's expectation — within 0.4 of forecast. Suggests this match played to the underlying xG balance.

> Bawler's picks · how they landed

Banker

Over 2.5 Goals

Pre-match: 71%

✓ Won

Dark Horse

Over 3.5 Goals

Pre-match: 23%

✗ Lost

Bawl Out✗ Lost@ 3.15x

Jonathan David 1+ Shot on Target✓
Over 2.5 Goals✓
1X✗

> What we said pre-match

"Over 2.5 Goals lands at 68% because both sides project nearly identical attacking threat at 1.26 and 1.29 xG respectively, with Davies and En-Nesyri primed to deliver in a dead-even contest."

> More from Bawler