FT · Italy: Serie A · Saturday, 24 October 2026
Cagliari 0–2 BolognaMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 24 October 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Bologna or draw at 70%. Bawler had Cagliari at 30%, the draw at 28% and Bologna at 42%. The match finished 0–2.
Pre-match probability vs result
Cagliari win
30%
Draw
28%
Bologna win
42%
Result
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.2 – 1.4
Total 2.6
Actual
0 – 2
Total 2 (−0.6 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
0.4 – 1.6
From the match itself
The match produced about as many goals as we forecast — within 0.6 of our 2.6.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 73%
Landed
Medium confidence
Both teams to score
Pre-match: 52%
Missed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 26%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals projects at 73% because Bologna's superior expected goals (1.41 vs. Cagliari's 1.16) combined with home-side creation should generate enough chances for a multi-goal contest."