Brazil 1–2 NorwayMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 05 July 2026

Brazil

1–2

Norway win

Norway

> Model verdict

✗ Result against the lean

Pre-match, Bawler had Brazil at 52%, draw at 28%, Norway at 20%. Against expectation, the match finished 1-2. The model's headline call was Brazil to win.

> Pre-match probability vs result

Brazil win

52%

Draw

28%

Norway win

20%

Actual ✓

> Expected vs actual goals

Model expected (xG)

1.84 – 1.08

Total 2.92

Actual

1 – 2

Total 3 (+0.1 vs xG)

Total goals landed close to the model's expectation — within 0.1 of forecast. Suggests this match played to the underlying xG balance.

> Bawler's picks · how they landed

Banker

Over 2.5 Goals

Pre-match: 76%

✓ Won

Dark Horse

Under 2.5 Goals

Pre-match: 24%

✗ Lost

Bawl Out✗ Lost@ 4.20x

Alexander Sørloth 1+ Shot on Target–
Over 2.5 Goals✓
Over 8.5 Corners✓
1X✗

> What we said pre-match

"Over 2.5 Goals lands at 76% with Brazil generating 1.84 xG at home while Norway's Haaland (30% of their xG) faces a 0.76 expected-goal deficit."

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