FT · Spain: Copa del Rey · Tuesday, 27 October 2026
Atlético Pinatarense 1–3 ElcheMatch recap & how our call landed · Tuesday, 27 October 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Elche or draw at 78%. Bawler had Atlético Pinatarense at 22%, the draw at 24% and Elche at 55%. The match finished 1–3.
Pre-match probability vs result
Atlético Pinatarense win
22%
Draw
24%
Elche win
55%
Result
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.1 – 1.9
Total 3.1
Actual
1 – 3
Total 4 (+0.9 against our forecast)
The match produced 0.9 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 81%
Landed
Medium confidence
Elche to win
Pre-match: 55%
Landed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 36%
Landed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Atlético Pinatarense's home win prediction rests on a decisive 1.51 xG advantage, translating to 70% forecast win probability against an Elche side managing just 0.89 expected goals."