FT · EUROPE: Conference League - Qualification · Thursday, 20 August 2026
Atalanta 0–0 Hapoel Tel AvivMatch recap & how our call landed · Thursday, 20 August 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call missed
Before kickoff our call was Atalanta to win at 76%. Bawler had Atalanta at 76%, the draw at 16% and Hapoel Tel Aviv at 9%. The match finished 0–0.
Pre-match probability vs result
Atalanta win
76%
Draw
16%
Result
Hapoel Tel Aviv win
9%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
2.6 – 0.8
Total 3.4
Actual
0 – 0
Total 0 (−3.4 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
0.8 – 0.8
From the match itself
The match produced 3.4 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Atalanta or draw
Pre-match: 91%
Landed
Outside shot
Hapoel Tel Aviv or draw
Pre-match: 24%
Landed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.