FT · EUROPE: Conference League - Qualification · Thursday, 20 August 2026
Atalanta 0–0 Hapoel Tel AvivMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Thursday, 20 August 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had Atalanta at 76%, draw at 16%, Hapoel Tel Aviv at 9%. Against expectation, the match finished 0-0. The model's headline call was Atalanta to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Atalanta win
76%
Draw
16%
Actual ✓
Aviv win
9%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
2.58 – 0.78
Total 3.36
Actual
0 – 0
Total 0 (-3.4 vs xG)
Match underperformed xG by 3.4 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
1X
Pre-match: 91%
✓ Won
Outside shot
X2
Pre-match: 24%
✓ Won