FT · Europe: Champions League - Qualification · Tuesday, 04 August 2026
Ararat-Armenia 2–1 NK CeljeMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Tuesday, 04 August 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had Ararat-Armenia at 41%, draw at 29%, NK Celje at 30%. The match ended 2-1 — confirming the model's lean toward Ararat-Armenia.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Ararat-Armenia win
41%
Actual ✓
Draw
29%
Celje win
30%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.64 – 1.40
Total 3.04
Actual
2 – 1
Total 3 (-0.0 vs xG)
Total goals landed close to the model's expectation — within 0.0 of forecast. Suggests this match played to the underlying xG balance.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 78%
✓ Won
Medium confidence
1X
Pre-match: 51%
✓ Won
Outside shot
Over 3.5 Goals
Pre-match: 26%
✗ Lost
> What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals commands 78% backing because both sides project nearly even attacking output (Ararat 1.64 xG, Celje 1.40), signaling a multi-goal affair despite the close matchup."