FT · Europe: Europa League - Qualification · Thursday, 27 August 2026
Ararat-Armenia 1–0 CSU CraiovaMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Thursday, 27 August 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had Ararat-Armenia at 28%, draw at 26%, CSU Craiova at 45%. Against expectation, the match finished 1-0. The model's headline call was CSU Craiova to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Ararat-Armenia win
28%
Actual ✓
Draw
26%
Craiova win
45%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.20 – 1.58
Total 2.77
Actual
1 – 0
Total 1 (-1.8 vs xG)
Match underperformed xG by 1.8 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 76%
✗ Lost
Medium confidence
X2
Pre-match: 72%
✗ Lost
Outside shot
Over 3.5 Goals
Pre-match: 30%
✗ Lost
> What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals is the high-confidence forecast at 76%, backed by Craiova's 0.38 xG advantage and combined shot creation of 2.77 expected goals that projects a low-scoring but open contest."