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Bawler / Andorra vs Malta / Recap
FT · Europe: UEFA Nations League · Thursday, 24 September 2026

Andorra 1–2 MaltaMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Thursday, 24 September 2026

Andorra
1–2
Malta win
Malta
> 🧠 Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean

Pre-match, Bawler had Andorra at 40%, draw at 26%, Malta at 35%. Against expectation, the match finished 1-2. The model's headline call was Andorra to win.

> Pre-match probability vs result
Andorra win
40%
Draw
26%
Malta win
35%
Actual ✓
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.54 – 1.43
Total 2.97
Actual
1 – 2
Total 3 (+0.0 vs xG)

Total goals landed close to the model's expectation — within 0.0 of forecast. Suggests this match played to the underlying xG balance.

> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 80%
✓ Won
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 26%
✗ Lost
> What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals is the model's high-confidence call at 80%, with both sides projected to 1.5+ xG in a fixture where Andorra's 40% win probability sits just six points clear of Malta's 34%."

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