Bawler's pick
3 legs, built by our modelAl Taawoun on top, and Abderrazak Hamdallah getting plenty of shots away.
Al Taawoun v Abha prediction
Our model gives Al Taawoun 48%, the draw 28% and Abha 24%, so Al Taawoun start as favourites. Our predicted score is Al Taawoun 1–0 Abha: the most likely score if Al Taawoun win, at 13%. Al Taawoun are expected to score 1.4 goals and Abha 0.9, 2.4 between them. Both teams scoring is only 47% and three or more goals comes in at 43%.
Of their last five meetings on our records, Al Taawoun have won two, Abha one, and two were drawn. When they last met, it finished Abha 2–3 Al-Taawoun, in Sept 2024. For cards, Nabil Fekir (Abha) has been booked once every 2 games in 2026/27, more often than anyone else here.
On shots, our forecast is 15.0 for Al Taawoun and 12.0 for Abha, with 4.1 and 3.5 on target, and corners at 5.1 to 3.7. So we expect Al Taawoun to do more of the shooting. Al Taawoun come in with no wins, two draws and four defeats in their last six. Abha have no wins, two draws and four defeats over the same run. For Bawler's pick we have gone with Al Taawoun or Draw, Al Taawoun Over 10.5 Shots and Abderrazak Hamdallah 2+ Shots. The chance all three land is 52% on our numbers, so the fair price is 10/11, or 1.91.
Written from the numbers on this page. These are forecasts, not certainties. 18+ Please gamble responsibly. BeGambleAware.org
Players to watch
Most booked
Games per booking, from their latest season — a record, not a forecastWhat we expect from each side
The grey number is their average over the last six.
More chances
Al Taawoun · last 6
Abha · last 6
League position
Head to head
First half — what we expect
First-half chances
How likely each side is to reach these totals before half-time.
Second half — who scores?
At half-time we update each side’s chance of scoring in the second half from what the first half showed.
What would change the call
Al Taawoun or draw is 76% now. Here is what it would become at half-time:
Based on the half-time score alone — team news is not included.
Around this fixture
Saudi Pro League table →Common questions
Who will win Al Taawoun vs Abha?
Bawler's model rates this match: Al Taawoun are favoured (48% win probability vs 24% for Abha, 28% draw). The model uses each side’s expected goals, recent form and the strength of the opposition.
What is the predicted score for Al Taawoun vs Abha?
Bawler's predicted score is Al Taawoun 1-0 Abha: the most likely score if Al Taawoun win, which is the likeliest result (48%). Our model puts that exact score at 13.1%. Expected total goals: 2.4.
How does Bawler predict Al Taawoun vs Abha?
Bawler estimates each side's expected goals from its results and the quality of its chances, adjusted for the strength of the opposition and for home advantage, then works out the chance of every scoreline to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. Team news and lineups are not built into these numbers. For this match that gives Al Taawoun 48%, the draw 28% and Abha 24%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in Al Taawoun vs Abha?
Probably not — Bawler's model gives both teams scoring a 47% chance, so at least one side is more likely than not to keep a clean sheet. That is based on Al Taawoun expecting 1.45 goals and Abha 0.94.
Over or under 2.5 goals in Al Taawoun vs Abha?
Bawler's model expects 2.4 goals in total. It leans slightly towards two goals or fewer: over 2.5 goals is 43%.
When are the Al Taawoun v Abha line-ups announced?
Clubs usually name their line-ups about an hour before kickoff.
What is Bawler's pick for Al Taawoun v Abha?
Al Taawoun or Draw (76%), Al Taawoun Over 10.5 Shots (82%), Abderrazak Hamdallah 2+ Shots (76%). Our model gives all 3 landing together a 52% chance, a fair price of 10/11 (1.91). 18+, please gamble responsibly.