Bawler's pick
3 legs, built by our modelAl Shabab on top, and Roger Martínez getting plenty of shots away.
Al Shabab v Al Ettifaq prediction
Al Shabab are favourites on our numbers: 52% to win, against 26% for Al Ettifaq and 23% for a draw. Our predicted score is Al Shabab 2–1 Al Ettifaq, the likeliest Al Shabab win score (9%). Our expected goals are 2.0 for Al Shabab and 1.4 for Al Ettifaq, 3.5 in all. Both teams scoring is 66% and three or more goals is 67%.
Of their last five meetings on our records, Al Shabab have won none, Al Ettifaq three, and two were drawn. When they last met, it finished Al-Ettifaq 1–1 Al Shabab, in Mar 2026. For cards, Abdoulaye Kanté (Al Ettifaq) has been booked about once a game in 2026/27, more often than anyone else here.
In their last six games Al Shabab have three wins, two draws and one defeat, while Al Ettifaq have two wins, three draws and one defeat. Al Shabab won their most recent match and Al Ettifaq drew theirs. On shots, our forecast is 16.0 for Al Shabab and 11.5 for Al Ettifaq, with 5.2 and 4.4 on target, and corners at 5.4 to 4.8. So we expect Al Shabab to do more of the shooting. Bawler's pick combines Al Shabab or Draw, Al Shabab Over 11.5 Shots and Roger Martínez 2+ Shots. We make the chance of all three coming in 52%, a fair price of 10/11 (1.94).
Written from the numbers on this page. These are forecasts, not certainties. 18+ Please gamble responsibly. BeGambleAware.org
Players to watch
Most booked
Games per booking, from their latest season — a record, not a forecastWhat we expect from each side
The grey number is their average over the last six.
More chances
Al Shabab · last 6
Al Ettifaq · last 6
League position
Head to head
First half — what we expect
First-half chances
How likely each side is to reach these totals before half-time.
Second half — who scores?
At half-time we update each side’s chance of scoring in the second half from what the first half showed.
What would change the call
Al Shabab or draw is 74% now. Here is what it would become at half-time:
Based on the half-time score alone — team news is not included.
Around this fixture
Saudi Pro League table →Common questions
Who will win Al Shabab vs Al Ettifaq?
Bawler's model rates this match: Al Shabab are favoured (52% win probability vs 26% for Al Ettifaq, 23% draw). The model uses each side’s expected goals, recent form and the strength of the opposition.
What is the predicted score for Al Shabab vs Al Ettifaq?
Bawler's predicted score is Al Shabab 2-1 Al Ettifaq: the most likely score if Al Shabab win, which is the likeliest result (52%). Our model puts that exact score at 9.2%. Expected total goals: 3.5.
How does Bawler predict Al Shabab vs Al Ettifaq?
Bawler estimates each side's expected goals from its results and the quality of its chances, adjusted for the strength of the opposition and for home advantage, then works out the chance of every scoreline to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. Team news and lineups are not built into these numbers. For this match that gives Al Shabab 52%, the draw 23% and Al Ettifaq 26%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in Al Shabab vs Al Ettifaq?
Probably — Bawler's model gives both teams scoring a 66% chance. That is based on Al Shabab expecting 2.04 goals and Al Ettifaq 1.42.
Over or under 2.5 goals in Al Shabab vs Al Ettifaq?
Bawler's model expects 3.5 goals in total. It leans towards three or more goals: over 2.5 goals is 67%.
When are the Al Shabab v Al Ettifaq line-ups announced?
Clubs usually name their line-ups about an hour before kickoff.
What is Bawler's pick for Al Shabab v Al Ettifaq?
Al Shabab or Draw (74%), Al Shabab Over 11.5 Shots (81%), Roger Martínez 2+ Shots (79%). Our model gives all 3 landing together a 52% chance, a fair price of 10/11 (1.94). 18+, please gamble responsibly.